Israel Setting The Stage To Attack Iran Over Phony Claims Of Iranian Missile Threats
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Over the past several days, Israel has been throwing its typical series of fits and tantrums both to its patron in Washington and to the “international community” that Iran may finally have the gall to defend itself. Of course, Iran’s possible actions are not presented as self-defense but as unjustified aggression and “hatred” of the settler state. Israel is typically declaring its right to “defend itself” but, in reality, that “defense” is nothing more than another act of offense in a long line of offenses against Iran.
Israeli media is now boosting up the idea that Iran is planning to launch missiles at Jerusalem as well as a coordinated attack against Israel with Hezbollah and “Shiites” in Syria as revenge for the numerous illegal attacks against Iran that Israel has undertaken in Syria over the last seven years.
One need only take a look at a recent article published in the Jerusalem Post to see a sampling of what Israeli media and the Israeli government are attempting to get across in terms of laying the groundwork for a “pre-emptive” strike on Iran. The article reads,
Israel is bracing for a barrage of missiles to be launched toward military positions along its northern front from Syria by Shi’ite militias trained and funded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Iran is reportedly very determined to carry out an attack. Intelligence reports have indicated such an attack is in the advanced planning stages and might soon be executed as Iran vowed to do in retaliation for an alleged Israeli air strike against the T4 airbase near Homs used by the IRGC two months ago.
Israel has allegedly uncovered involvement by Hezbollah commanders and senior operatives from Shi’ite militias in the planning of the retaliatory strike. It is believed these militias, along with experts from Hezbollah under the command of the IRGC’s Quds Force Commander Maj.-Gen. Qassem Soleimani, will launch precision-guided missiles or armed drones from a base in Syria.
“The idea is to use heavy Iranian missiles, including the Fateh-110 under the command and with the advisory work of Hezbollah but without an IRGC presence,” Channel 10 reported on Sunday night, adding that Hezbollah members from Lebanon have been brought to Syria to train Shi’ite militia members for the attack.
While military officials have briefed mayors across the country on the latest developments, the heads of local councils in northern Israel have told residents there have been no special instructions or precautions issued.
While Hezbollah and the IRGC are the only groups that have the weapons and know-how to launch such an attack, it is believed the missiles will be launched by one of the many Shi’ite militia groups deployed in Syria to give Tehran the ability to deny their role.
According to Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, a research fellow at the Middle East Forum, there are several key candidates who might launch the missile barrage for Iran.“The Syrian civil war has led to the expansion of the IRGC’s network of regional clients,” Tamimi told The Jerusalem Post. “[There are] a variety of groups that could possibly strike Israel on its behalf, such as one of the many new ‘Syrian Hezbollah’ groups integrated into the registers of the Syrian armed forces, or one of the Iraqi groups that emerged during the war, like Harakat al-Nujaba and its ‘Golan Liberation Brigade.’”Another possible group, Tamimi said, was a Palestinian organization linked to Hezbollah and the IRGC, such as the “Force of Return,” which is currently fighting for the regime of Bashar Assad in the Yarmouk camp outside Damascus.
“But it still remains the case that Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which maintains some bases in Syria, is the most likely and capable of carrying out an attack,” Tamimi said.
According to Michael Horowitz, senior regional analyst at Le Beck, a Middle East-based geopolitical consultancy group, having Hezbollah carry out the attack would go against the plans by Tehran, which is said to be trying to avoid full-fledged war with Israel.
“This would defeat the purpose of using Shi’ite militias, which in my opinion was meant to enable Iran to respond without actually provoking an escalation,” Horowitz told the Post.
In recent months, Israel has have identified and released pictures of several air bases throughout Syria it said are being used by Iranian forces. The pictures have been released to the media in an effort to deter Iran from carrying out their strike, as those bases would likely be targeted by Israel in response.
According to Horowitz, “Israel chose to publish such threats to send the message that it will see any attack coming from an Iranian-backed group as one actually coming from Iran, and thus will respond in kind.”
To be certain, Iran has issued opaque threats of retaliation against Israel. Remember, Israel has repeatedly attacked Iranian military positions and military assets inside Syria. Every one of those attacks were not only unjustified but also illegal.
Hezbollah has also begun moving its troops back into Lebanon as their mission has been accomplished in Syria. However, Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon is purely defensive, its main purpose being to defend the country against Israeli attacks.
There is no reason to believe that Iran or Hezbollah is preparing to launch a missile attack at Israel if, for no other reason than the timing. The Iranians may well issue threats but Iran is not foolish enough to launch a full-on missile assault against Israel for the sheer fact that the United States, always poised to fight and die to the last American for Israel, would be brought in to defend its regional bully directly, thus throwing all of Iran’s carefully won gains in both Syria and Iraq to naught.
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