Indian researchers have found buried archeological features at Dholavira, one of the important sites of Harappan civilisation in India.

Reseachers collecting data at Dholavira site [Credit: The Hindu Business Line]

A team of archaeologists at Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, conducted a survey of an unexplored area of around 12,276 square meter at Dholavira using Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) technique which helps scanning of the ground and reveals objects buried underground.

The GPR data suggests existence of a set of small and shallow reservoirs possibly connected with the existing Eastern Reservoir. The depth of these reservoirs has been estimated to be around 2.5 meter below the present ground level. In addition, some structures have been found containing rubble with some features. These findings suggest the possible existence of check dams in the past, which may have collapsed due to flash floods in Manhar river.

Layout of the studied area at Dholavira, Gujarat, east of the East Reservoir [Credit: Current Science, 2018]

The studied area is surrounded by Manhar river flowing from east to west. The overall site is gently sloping towards west, thus during floods the overflow water could have only flowed towards the area which may have caused damage in some of the structures, researchers have pointed out. "The presence of the grand East Reservoir and a series of reservoirs excavated earlier suggests that the Harappans had a good water-harvesting system.The studied area is expected to have similar kinds of reservoirs, bunds, check dams, channels, drains and water tanks," the study has noted. Moreover, the observed features in the GPR data are of large dimension and resemble reservoir-type of structures, unlike residential structures of smaller size.

The present study provides evidence that the Harappans had an excellent knowledge of hydraulic engineering. Check dams were built to control flow of water during floods while small　reservoirs protected the East Reservoir. This investigation suggests that check dams and small reservoirs may have sustained partial damage due to a major flood at some point of time, but most of the East reservoir could still survive. Therefore, the study says, the purpose of engineering design behind these structures was well served under extreme conditions too.

Reseachers collecting data at Dholavira site [Credit: The Hindu Business Line]

Dholavira is one of the largest and the most prominent archaeological sites of Harappan civilization in India situated at Khadirbet in Bhachau taluka, Kutch district, Gujarat. The site is surrounded by salt pans of the Great Rann of Kutch and consists of the ruins of an ancient Indus Valley Civilization. The city existed from about 3000 to 1700 BCE, in an area of around 100 ha with 48 ha under fortification. There were several unexplored areas inside the city space which may contain ruins of the ancient city.

“The buried structures in Dholavira are probably made of stones and bricks, which is why there is low contrast between objects and medium. Such weak radar signals were analyzed using special processing tool developed by us. This tool can pinpoint objects better by magnifying the signals at local level by looking at it in time-frequency domain. The structures are mostly broken and therefore resulted into indistinct or uncommon reflection patterns. We then correlated our findings with the structures seen in exposed part of the site,” Dr. Amit Prashant, who led the study team, told India Science Wire.

The radar data will assist archaeologists to plan further excavations without damaging the underground structures. The study has been published in journal Current Science. The research team included Silky Agrawal, Mantu Majumder, Ravindra Singh Bisht and Amit Prashant.

Source: The Hindu Business Line [March 05, 2018]

Remotely detecting changes in landforms has long relied upon the interpretation of aerial and satellite images. Effective interpretation of these images, however, can be hindered by the environmental conditions at the time the photo was taken, the quality of the image and the lack of topographical information.

Composite image of vegetation indices in Northwest India created from 1254 images  reveals a complex palaeoriver network comprised of more than 8000km of palaeochannels. The new MSRM algorithm will contribute to mapping the complete ancient palaeoriver network of northwest India and to a better understanding of how the Indus Civilisation  operated c. 2600-1900 BC [Credit: Hector A. Orengo]

More recently, data produced by photogrammetry and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) models have become commonplace for those involved in geographical analysis - engineers, hydrologists, landscape architects and archaeologists.

In general, these techniques were designed to highlight small-scale 'micro-topographies' such as the expansive Mayan settlement network recently revealed in the dense jungles of Guatemala. But, how to connect the dots on a larger scale?

In new research published this week in the journal Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Cambridge archaeologists present a new algorithm, Multi-Scale Relief Model (MSRM), which is able to extract micro-topographic information at a variety of scales employing micro-, meso- and large-scale digital surface (DSM) and digital terrain (DTM) models.

Dr Hector Orengo, researcher at the McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research and lead author of the study, said, "We originally developed this algorithm to complement multitemporal remote-sensing using multispectral satellite images that are currently being applied to the reconstruction of the prehistoric river network in northwest India as part of the TwoRains project."

The TwoRains multitemporal remote sensing approach has had an important impact as it was able to find and accurately trace more than 8,000km of relict water courses; the image of which has been selected as the cover image of this year's Cambridge Science Festival (see image above).

However, the authors were conscious that many ancient rivers were not being found. Dr Orengo said, "It soon became clear that detecting and mapping topographic features such as levees, riverbeds, bluff lines and dune fields could help provide insight into how palaeorivers behaved and eventually disappeared."

"The new MSRM algorithm has addressed this need and its application has significantly extended our knowledge of the palaeoriver network of north-western India with more than 10,000 new rivers detected."

Understanding how the Indus civilisation accessed and managed their water resources is at the heart of the TwoRains Project.

Dr Cameron Petrie, director of the ERC-funded project and co-author on the study, commented, "We are investigating the nature of human adaptation to the ecological conditions created by the winter and summer rainfall systems of India. These systems are important for understanding the past and planning for the future due to their potential for direct impact on very current issues such as food security and the sustainability of human settlement in particular areas."

"Humans can adapt their behaviour to a wide range of climatic and environmental conditions, so it is essential that we understand the degree to which human choices in the past, present and future are resilient and sustainable in the face of variable weather conditions, and when confronted with abrupt events of climate change. Reconstructing the prehistoric hydrographical network of the Sutlej-Yamuna interfluve in northwest India helps us to understand these adaptations more fully."

Dr Orengo believes that the new method has many uses outside the realm of archaeology. He commented, "The application of MSRM can also be beneficial to all other research fields aiming to interpret small terrain differences. We have made the code open access in the paper with the hope that others will be able to use it for their own interests, and also evaluate and improve it."

Source: University of Cambridge [February 08, 2018]

Fresh excavations are underway at Kunal, a pre-Harappan site around 5,000 years old, in Haryana's Fatehabad district.

A view of the excavation site in Kunal village [Credit: APN]

The archaeological excavations at Kunal had started in 1986 and are continuing with a few field-season gaps, an official release said.

The digging process was started yesterday by Director General, National Museums, B R Mani and Deputy Director, Haryana Archaeology and Museums Department (HAMD), Banani Bhattacharyya.

A shard of pottery embedded in soil [Credit: APN]

Besides, the HAMD and the National Museums, experts from the Indian Archaeological Society (IAS) are also engaged in the excavations at the earliest Harappan site in the state, the release said.

The HAMD and the Delhi-based IAS had signed an MoU last year for excavation works at the Harappan site.

Terracotta pottery from the site on display [Credit: APN]

Findings at Kunal have contributed to early Harappan studies in the Indian sub-continent and can open new prospects for future researches, the release said.

Three successive phases of occupation from pit-dwelling to that of square and rectangular mud brick houses have come to light, and are supposed to be the earliest remains of the pre-Harappan culture in India, it said.

The star is a common motif found on pottery. It is believed to have been used as an identification mark for commerce [Credit: APN]

In earlier excavations, a hoard of regalia item, including six gold beads of a necklace, an armlet and a few bangle pieces and 12,445 beads of semi-precious stones, were found, the release said.

That makes the whole gamut of the luxury items as "richest" when seen in the context of rural nature of settlement of 3,000 BC, it said.

One of the important contributions of this site is the discovery of steatite and shell seals, which are the earliest example of seal manufacturing in India, so far, the release said.

Source: Press Trust of India [February 05, 2018]

Just a week after scientists reported evidence that our species left Africa earlier than we thought, another discovery is suggesting the date might be pushed back further.

Levallois core from Attirampakkam, India, is the product of a stone tool-making strategy for obtaining thin, broad flakes from a chunk of rock [Credit: Sharma Centre for Heritage Education, India]

Homo sapiens arose in Africa at least 300,000 years ago and left to colonize the globe. Scientists think there were several dispersals from Africa, not all equally successful. Last week's report of a human jaw showed some members of our species had reached Israel by 177,000 to 194,000 years ago.

Now comes a discovery in India of stone tools, showing a style that has been associated elsewhere with our species. They were fashioned from 385,000 years ago to 172,000 years ago, showing evidence of continuity and development over that time. That starting point is a lot earlier than scientists generally think Homo sapiens left Africa.

This tool style has also been attributed to Neanderthals and possibly other species. So it's impossible to say whether the tools were made by Homo sapiens or some evolutionary cousin, say researchers who reported the finding in the journal Nature.

Some typical artefacts from Middle Palaeolithic cultural phases at Attirampakkam [Credit: Sharma Centre for Heritage Education, India]

"We are very cautious on this point" because no human fossils were found with the tools, several authors added in a statement.

It's not clear how much the tool development reflects arrival of populations or ideas from outside India, versus being more of a local development, said one author, Shanti Pappu of the Sharma Centre for Heritage Education in Chennai, India.

The tool-making style was a change from older stone tools found at the site, featuring a shift to smaller flakes, for example.

Middle Palaeolithic artefacts emerging during excavation at Attirampakkam [Credit: Sharma Centre for Heritage Education, India]

Michael Petraglia, an archaeologist who specializes in human evolution in Asia but didn't participate in the work, said he did not think the tools show that our species had left Africa so long ago.

"I simply don't buy it," said Petraglia of the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History in Jena, Germany.

Instead, he said, he believes one of our evolutionary cousins in India developed the tool style independently of outside influence. The tools at the site northwest of Chennai in southeastern India are closely related to the older tool-making style there and seem to represent a transition, he said.

The idea that they reflect knowledge brought in from elsewhere would be tough to prove in India, he said. The country has few well-studied archaeological sites and only one fossil find from this period, from a forerunner of Homo sapiens that was associated with the earlier style of tool-making, Petraglia said.

Author: Malcolm Ritter | Source: The Associated Press [February 01, 2018]

On January 3, a team of archaeologists from China and Bangladesh announced the results of their four-year excavation of the Vikrampur Ruins in Bangladesh at a special archaeological forum.

Aerial view of the excavation site [Credit: Guo Weimin]

Located in the Munshiganj district, near the Bangladesh capital of Dhaka, the excavation is providing some valuable clues about the history of Atisa, a famous Bengali leader and Buddhist master, who according to Tibetan historical records was born in the area.

The excavation site is believed to be the remains of the ancient city of Vikrampur, a major Buddhist center that was the capital at one time or another of the Chandra (900-1050), Varman (1080-1150) and Sena (1100-1230) dynasties.

Historical significance

The excavation is significant not only for its historical finds, but also for what it means for relations between China and Bangladesh.

Archaeologists work at the Vikrampur Ruins excavation site in Munshiganj district, Bangladesh [Credit: Guo Weimin]

"This marks the first time that China has collaborated with a country in the Indian subcontinent on an archaeological excavation, "Guo Weimin, the director of the Institute of Cultural Relics and Archaeology of Hunan Province, told the Global Times on Monday.

"The excavation was initiated by the Agrashar Vikrampur Foundation in Bangladesh in 2013. They first started off by exploring a 344-square-meter area in the village of Nateshwar in Munshiganj.

"Later, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Bangladesh, another sponsor of the project, asked the Chinese embassy in Bangladesh for financial and technical help. Soon after, the Institute of Cultural Relics and Archaeology of Hunan Province was asked to take part in the excavation," he said, explaining how the cooperation began.

"The most important find was the excavation of two building ruins, a Stupa courtyard and a Vihara [monastery] dating from around 780 to 950," Guo told the Global Times.

Through the symbols discovered on site, experts have determined that these two building complexes are related to Atisa.

The remains of a Buddhist vihara discovered at the site [Credit: The Daily Star]

"From the seventh to the ninth century, when the Indian subcontinent was at its most prosperous, this place was the capital of East India. It was also where Atisa got his start before he went to Tibet and became the forefather of the Kadam school of Tibetan Buddhism," Guo explained.

These ruins are also significant for another reason, according to Chai Huanbo, the Chinese head of the joint excavation team and a researcher with the Hunan Institute of Archaeology, as they were part of one of the last Buddhist complexes in the Indian subcontinent to be destroyed after Islam became the dominant religion in the area from the 13th to 16th centuries.

"In 1204, Turkic general Ikhtiaruddin Mohammad Bakhtiar Khalji defeated Lakshmana Sena [a ruler of the Sena Dynasty]. He then started his Muslim reign the next year. When his Muslim army invaded Vikrampur in 1223, almost all the Buddhist monasteries were destroyed to provide bricks and columns for Islamic mosques."

Deepening ties

According to Guo, the excavation has also helped promote friendly relations between China and Bangladesh.

Detail of the brickwork of the Buddhist vihara [Credit: The Daily Star]

"The site is a bridge that has enhanced cultural exchanges and the friendly relationship between China and Bangladesh. Through this excavation, we have been imparting our archaeological knowledge and experience to Bangladesh," Guo said.

Chai also stressed that besides helping with the excavation, the Chinese team is also providing aid in other areas.

"China will also help Bangladesh restore and repair these unearthed objects, work with them to examine the discoveries, store them and write the excavation report."

Seeing the collaboration as something that will have impact outside the field of archaeology, Guo expressed that he was very proud of the work and what it represents.

"Our institution provided a lot more than just technology and experiences, we also brought a spirit of friendship."

Author: Luo Yunzhou | Source: Global Times [January 27, 2018]

A rare sarcophagus (stone coffin), said to be 2,000-year old from the Iron Age–Megalithic era, was discovered from a rock-cut cave at Viyur village of Kollam, near Koyilandy, in Kozhikode district on Monday.

The sarcophagus discovered from a rock-cut cave at Viyur village of Kollam  [Credit: The Hindu]

The coffin containing bone fragments was found during an excavation. “So far, such a rare finding has been discovered only from two sites in Kerala. Both these sarcophagi were recovered from Megalithic sites at Chevayur and Atholi, also in Kozhikode district,” K. Krishnaraj of the Archaeology Department, who is supervising the excavation, said.

The bone fragments could be of either a man or a woman. They will be sent for carbon dating using accelerator mass spectrometry at the Beta Analytical Laboratory in California, he said. Excavation at the site commenced after a hemispherical rock-cut chamber was discovered in a compound while flattening land using an earthmover. The cave, with an inside pillar, measuring 1.9 metres in diameter, has a height of 90 centimetres.

The entrance of the cave was on the eastern side. “The square-shaped door has equal length of 50 centimetres on all sides. Different types of pottery, mostly four-legged jars and iron implements, were found in the cave, ” he said.

Sarcophagi was found in many archaeological sites in South India earlier. Some are adorned with a sculpture or inscription. But two types are usually found with bovine features or with legs.

“As of now, we have obtained preliminary details about the excavations. However, it can be confirmed that a rich Megalithic culture existed in the region following the discoveries of pre-Iron age civilisation earlier. The excavation will continue for another week,” Mr. Krishnaraj said.

Author: Biju Govind | Source: The Hindu [January 19, 2018]

Archaeologists in Tibet autonomous region believe the ninth century Purang stele to be the oldest in the region.

The Purang stele discovered in Tibet  [Credit: China News Service]

Shargan Wangdue, of Tibet Cultural Relics Protection Institute, said the stele was discovered in Ngari prefecture in northern part of the Tibet autonomous region.

The stele is 1.85 meters tall, inscribed with the image of a standing Buddha.

On its left side are 24 lines of old Tibetan language. On its right side are 19 lines of Buddhist prayers.

Shargan Wangdue said most scholars agree that the stele was set up in 826 or 838, during the period of Tubo kingdom.

"This stele shows Buddhism was already being practiced during the Tubo period in western part of Ngari," Shargan Wangdue said.

Source: Xinhua [January 09, 2018]

Over the weekend, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted an elaborate event in Beijing concerning the PRC's idea of reviving the historical Silk Road. Spanning much of Asia and the Middle East besides, this trade route epitomized many of the things China wants to be today: (1) at the center of world trade, (2) involved in infrastructure, and (3) a prime mover of international relations. This, of course, stands in contrast to the retrograde "America First" stylings of the racist-protectionist-isolationist American president, Donald Trump.

Some hackles were raised about the invitation being extended to North Korea, of all nations, but certainly we'd rather have it peacefully trading with the rest of us than firing missiles to draw attention to itself?

More to the point, though, how realistic is this plan? A few months ago, an op-ed appeared in the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (usually a Communist Party-friendly outlet) placing the "One Belt, One Road" project's viability in question by way of Japan's example from only a few years back of doing something similar: using infrastructural might to extend not only diplomacy but also trade with its neighbors:

Facing a deep slowdown after years of investment-fuelled growth that culminated in a huge property and stock market bubble, the leaders of Asia’s largest economy [China] come up with a cunning plan. By launching an initiative to fund and construct infrastructure projects across Asia, they will kill four birds with one stone.

They will generate enough demand abroad to keep their excess steel mills, cement plants and construction companies in business, so preserving jobs at home. They will tie neighbouring countries more closely into their own economic orbit, so enhancing both their hard and soft power around the region. They will further their long term plan to promote their own currency as an international alternative to the US dollar. And to finance it all, they will set up a new multi-lateral infrastructure bank, which will undermine the influence of the existing Washington-based institutions, with all their tedious insistence on transparency and best practice, by making more “culturally sensitive” soft loans. The result will be the regional hegemony they regard as their right as Asia’s leading economic and political power.

However, the author Tom Holland delivers the punch line that, actually, the Japanese tried all this stuff before and failed:

[I]t’s actually a description of a strikingly similar plan rolled out by Japanese prime minister Keizo Obuchi in the 1990s. That too promised to provide work for Japan’s recession-hit construction sector by building Japanese-funded infrastructure projects around Asia. And it even included a proposal – never realised – to establish an Asian Monetary Fund to lend to regional governments on easier terms than either the IMF or World Bank.
Unfortunately for Beijing, the precedent is hardly encouraging. From the start the scheme was plagued by bickering over conditions and allegations of corruption. A handful of infrastructure projects did get built, but the reality fell woefully short of Tokyo’s grandiose dreams. Far from cementing Japan’s economic ascendancy across Asia, the project left a legacy of bad blood, and marked the beginning of a financial retreat from around the region that Japan has only recently begun to reverse.

The rest of the editorial notes that rampant corruption elsewhere siphoned funds away from projects, and those bits that actually did get built ended up as "white elephant" projects: transport initiatives that cost so much to maintain that they could not be sustained and were eventually shelved. Certainly, the OBOR and New Silk Road tags characterize some grandiose initiative. (See the map pabove.) Whether the Chinese have the actual sense to scale these to reality-based bits is another question since linking the Middle East all the way to the Far East is not a vision based on modesty. 

Scaling it appropriately to meet local needs of the countries involved is key. That is, participating countries will plump for maintaining infrastructure built (with Chinese support) insofar as they can benefit from it going forward. However, if benefits are not evident--or mainly serve the purpose of transit through a country instead of serving the citizens of the countries in question first and foremost--the Japanese example provides ample cautions.

UPDATE: A warning is that investment in OBOR countries has, actually, dropped off in recent times, though there are caveats associated with this as a gauge:

Foreign direct investment from China to countries identified as part of the BRI fell 2 per cent in 2016 year on year and has dropped an additional 18 per cent so far in 2017, according to commerce ministry data. Non-financial FDI to 53 BRI countries totalled $14.5bn last year, comprising only 9 per cent of overall outbound FDI...

Chinese experts counter that published figures do not paint a complete story. Jia Jinjing, chief researcher at the Renmin University’s Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies in Beijing, said much outbound FDI passes from China through an intermediate country before reaching its final destination, making the commerce data an unreliable gauge of total BRI investment.

Pakistan's aid donors help bolster its reserves--not financial inflows for the most part.

It is sad that accumulating $20B in reserves--this in a country with a population of 182 million--is considered as a "record." However, that is the case for Pakistan and its recent report on foreign exchange reserves. As chronicled in this blog [1, 2], Pakistan is a habitual borrower from the IMF--a dubious distinction if there ever was one that even the IMF would prefer avoiding. Unfortunately, Pakistan's bolstered reserves, low as they are in ultimate terms--China has over a whopping 175 times more by my estimates--are mostly the result of the IMF juicing up the coffers:

Pakistan’s record foreign-exchange reserves are masking economic weaknesses that risk pushing the nation toward more aid from the International Monetary Fund. At least half of the country’s $20 billion stockpile comprises debt and grants, almost all of which have flowed in since Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took office in May 2013. That money could leave quickly as Pakistan begins repaying the IMF in 2016 or if oil prices surge, leading to another balance-of-payments crisis.

"This is borrowed money and not a reflection of a stable economy," said Yawar uz Zaman, vice president for research at Karachi-based Shajar Capital Pakistan Pvt. "Finance costs will continue to grow in the years to come, which will mean we will go for another loan from an international lender."

Sharif won a $6.6 billion loan from the IMF soon after taking charge, triggering a stock market rally that has put Pakistan among the world’s best performers. Since then, however, he’s struggled to attract more stable inflows as a shaky global economic recovery damps demand and makes investors wary.

The rest comes with a little help from Pakistan's [self-styled] friends. Other contributions are from non-financial and more political- or security-related sources in the form of the Saudis chipping in another $1.5B and the American-led coalition another $2.8B. In other words, the inflows are not from financially sustainable sources like foreign investment or export proceeds.

People of goodwill wish Pakistan well, but the truth is that it hasn't really done anything to make itself attract more financial inflows outside of charity. Pakistan remains, in the words of Anatol Lieven, a hard country.

Follow the money trail on the mooted China-Pakistan superhighway.

The Chinese way to winning friends by buying off nations is formulaic by now: The first pillar of this diplomatic outreach effort involves unconditional lending of vast sums of money. To this end, the Chinese like to contrast their "mutual benefit" and "mutual respect" against the laundry list of conditionalities imposed by the likes of the World Bank, IMF or regional development banks. The second pillar consists of infrastructure: If the Chinese have gained experience in any particular area over the past few decades, it's in building structures. You name it--airports, power stations, roads, railways, seaports, even football stadiums--and the Chinese have accumulated vast experience constructing it. In particular, connecting to other countries enables either the smoother process of extracting raw materials necessary for China's massive manufacturing machine and the export of finished goods in the opposite direction.

Governance? Human rights? Quite frankly, China doesn't give a &*^% about any of those things. Hence the Chinese reading of the principle of "non-interference" in others' affairs.

In terms of being chronically hard-up, few countries in the Asia-Pacific come close to Pakistan. This repeat borrower from the IMF certainly chafes at the conditionalities imposed upon it time and again. And for what? The monies provided are not especially large. Into this picture comes China attempting to win friends and buy off nations. You don't need a PhD in economics or political science to figure out how to win the hearts of the Pakistanis after years of having to deal with the loathsome, self-important Yanquis and their assorted minions: shovel wads of cash with few to no strings attached. Build infrastructure while you're at it, too.

To no one's surprise, China is using both pillars in attempting to win over its neighbor:

The focus of spending is on building a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) - a network of roads, railway and pipelines between the long-time allies. They will run some 3,000km (1,800 miles) from Gwadar in Pakistan to China's western Xinjiang region. The projects will give China direct access to the Indian Ocean and beyond. This marks a major advance in China's plans to boost its influence in Central and South Asia, correspondents say, and far exceeds US spending in Pakistan.

Once more, Big Things are planned for Pakistani development:

Is Pakistan on the verge of becoming the Asian Tiger Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said it would become when he was last in power in 1997? China plans to inject some $46bn - almost three times the entire foreign direct investment Pakistan has received since 2008. Many say Mr Sharif's penchant for "thinking big" and China's increasing need to control maritime trade routes may well combine to pull off an economic miracle in Pakistan.

But there are questions over Pakistan's ability to absorb this investment given its chronic problems with militancy, separatism, political volatility and official corruption. China is worried about violence from ethnic Uighurs in its mostly Muslim north-western Xinjiang region and fears hard-line separatists could team up with Uighur militants fighting alongside members of Pakistan's Taliban.

$46 billion! Even $4.6 billion a year would have been mighty impressive in light of the funds provided by the World Bank and other institutions of American hegemony. You have to wonder though if strife-torn Pakistan has the absorptive capacity to productively use so much capital being injected in so little time.

Given Pakistan's history of uncontrolled corruption and insurgency, it may ironically be this country that makes China more aware of the needs for good governance if it turns out that it is throwing away good money after bad on a country that's proven to be a bottomless money pit since its independence. In that case, it would begin to act like any other international lender.

Edgbaston High School for Girls is literally a stone's throw away.

I obtained my doctorate in Political Science way back in 2008 at the University of Birmingham, in the UK's second largest city by population. A year before that, I began writing this blog which still survives (and thrives!) somehow. Despite three or four changes of academic affiliation since, the blog lives. However I am not exactly the most famous person associated with Birmingham, writing a blog in a somewhat obscure academic discipline. After being shot by crazed Taliban assassins in Pakistan while on board a school bus, Malala Yousafzai became a heroine to women being persecuted for desiring an education. A few days ago, she became the youngest Nobel laureate for winning the Peace Prize at age 17. It's a feelgood story Westerners like.

Going home being deemed to dangerous, Malala has since resettled in Birmingham, UK. I was of course aware of this, but what I was not aware of was how Malala is attending secondary school near the campus of the University of Birmingham at Edgbaston High School.

Pakistani schoolgirl Malala Yousafzai, who was shot in the head by the Taliban after campaigning for girls' rights to education, has attended her first day at school in the UK. The 15-year-old was shot on a school bus in Pakistan in October. She has now recovered following treatment at Birmingham's Queen Elizabeth Hospital.

She described starting at the city's Edgbaston High School for Girls as "the most important day" of her life. She said: "I think it is the happiest moment that I'm going back to school, this is what I dreamed, that all children should be able to go to school because it is their basic right. "I am so proud to wear the uniform because it proves I am a student and that I am living my life and learning." Malala is in year nine and will start her GCSE curriculum next year. She said she was looking forward to learning about politics and law. 

Those of you who've been to Brum (our affectionate nickname for the town) know that Edgbaston is the more upscale, tonier part of the rather expansive University of Birmingham campus. The other part, Selly Oak, is the more--how do I put this--proletarian part of town. It is also where I stayed in student residence. One of the more curious memories I have about its location is that a fellow student from Pakistan also staying at Jarratt Hall was concerned about the security situation there [!] But hey, don't feel too sorry for us; another resident loved it so much that he's titled his latest trance album after our beloved student residence.

At any rate, the University of Birmingham was named "University of the Year" in 2013-2014. It's been trying to drum up attention in recent years and increase its academic rankings in the process--we're one of the world's top 100 universities in most surveys. Malala should consider that our rankings for the disciplines she's interested in are not too shabby, either: Brum ranks 13th in Political Science and 17th in Law.

Certainly, there's a hard-nosed persistence bred through living in a city lacking glamor--think of it as the Houston of the UK and you wouldn't be far off the mark. Yet, we thrive. It would also complete the circle for Malala: she received treatment for her injuries at the Queen Elizabeth Hospital on campus grounds and attends high school across the grounds of the aforementioned university. The only thing left for her is to study law or political science at the University of Birmingham ;-)

Oh my, I hereby declare April 2014 "Bash Bhutan Month." Having criticized the small country for catering to wealthier tourists via its minimum spend requirements to obtain a visa despite purportedly pursing anti-materialistic "gross national happiness," I offer another criticism along similar lines. Rest assured that I feel guilty pointing out Bhutan's flaws since it's but a small developing country. However, just as I regularly bash Yanqui blowhards over hoary American exceptionalism--us stupid colored people would be so much better off if we were more like the US--Bhutan also has it coming with all this "gross national happiness" jibba-jabba.

Like other countries, Bhutan has its ethno-religious minorities. Almost without exception, they bear grievances. Think of Tibetans in China, or Muslims in the Southern Philippines and Southern Thailand. In Bhutan, there are the Hindu Lhotshampa people who compose a fifth of the population but are not exactly treated on the same basis as the Buddhist majority. First, a bit of sordid history:

In the 1980’s Bhutan changed its citizenship laws, especially in relation to Lhotshampa citizenship. At the time the Lhotshampa comprised roughly on third of the population, posing a possible threat to political order. By 1990, government policies became more repressive for the Lhotshampa and they fled as refugees from the government’s actions or were expelled as their citizenship was proclaimed illegitimate. The Lhotshampa’s sudden expulsion left Bhutan with abandoned villages, an injured farming base, and international criticism. A few Lhotshampa still remain in Bhutan, yet face discrimination as a marginalized, minority ethnicity.

Anyway, to frame today's discriminatory measures, we begin once more with other countries' uncritical admiration of "gross national happiness" happy talk:

Many nations, including Japan and Canada, have expressed aspirations to emulate GNH, which shuns purely economic yardsticks like gross domestic product (GDP), on the assumption that the policy has resulted in Bhutan’s people being happier than elsewhere. But happiness goes hand-in-hand with human rights. So does Bhutan really have respect for human rights?

I was peripherally aware of Bhutan's minorities before; what I was unaware of was the extent of the discrimination against them. Indeed, there is even a caste system in place that limits their freedom of movement:

Among the main stakeholders in these [UNHCR] recommendations were the “Lhotshampas,” as Bhutan’s southerners are called. They are part of the nation’s ethnic Nepalese minority. While some of them have risen to become ministers, many others do not even have full citizenship rights.

The citizenship ID cards the Ministry of Home and Cultural Affairs issues to them contain seven categories. Category 1 is for “genuine Bhutanese citizens.” Category 2 is for southerners who left Bhutan once and then returned; 3 is for those who were not around when the 1988 census was held; 4 refers to non-national women married to Bhutanese men, and their children; 5 is for non-national men married to Bhutanese women, and their children; 6 is for legally adopted children. And category 7 would mean the card holder is a non-national.

Holders of cards in categories other than 1 and 4 normally do not get the security clearance required for a passport. They cannot get voter ID cards either, which mean they cannot vote. Worse, those who carry category 7 cards, or fall in that category – and there are significant numbers of them – cannot get admission into schools or get government or corporate jobs. They find it difficult to travel even within the country – they get a “route permit” for restricted domestic travel.

I hate to disabuse you of illusions, but Bhutan isn't quite a Magic Kingdom that's a true-to-life happiest place on earth. Like nearly every other country, it has issues with racism and discrimination against ethnic minorities. The reason why it gets the stick is because, unlike most other countries, it makes grandiose claims about making everyone happy. Just like American hypocrisy on strong dollar policy, Internet freedom or any sort of risible, self-serving happy talk they keep coming up with, Bhutanese leaders need to understand how the rest of us see it. In either case, don't drink that Kool Aid so readily.

To paraphrase Imelda Marcos, I guess some people's happiness matters more than that of others.

Did US interference make their lives any better? Take a guess...

For many people in conflict zones, the coming of the year 2014 is hardly "new," let alone "happy." The depressing truth as we begin another calendar year is simply that various messes the white man has contributed to are in no way sorted out, and that foreign adventurism--especially the so-called "war on terror," is not yet finished.

We are all familiar with friends who like getting into you trouble. A few drinks for them and they become belligerent. The archetypal "friend" that fits into this mold is the United States as it engages in drunken outbursts that implicate others. As it so happens, Italian authorities have been faced with a huge refugee crisis at the start of 2014 as a "greatest hits" of American foreign policy failure has come to roost on their shores. This has been ongoing for a number of years, but the volume is unprecedented. Egypt, Pakistan and Iraq are classic sites for Americans sticking their noses when they don't belong, while Tunisia indirectly implicates the US via the latter's championing of the overthrow of undemocratic leaders. As it so happens, folks are wishing to flee these places. I guess the freedom 'n' democracy shtick BushBama keep yakking about didn't pan out. Wonder why...

The Italian navy rescued more than 1,000 migrants in the 24 hours to Friday from boats trying to reach Europe, authorities said, as an immigration crisis that killed hundreds in the last year showed no signs of easing. Navy helicopters spotted four overcrowded boats struggling to stay afloat south of Sicily on Thursday and ships were sent to save them, the navy said in a statement. The 823 men, women and children aboard the four vessels were from countries including Egypt, Pakistan, Iraq and Tunisia.

Over the past two decades, Italy, Greece and the Mediterranean island of Malta have the brunt of the migrant flows [being the nearest EU countries, especially to North Africa] and have urged a coordinated European Union response.

Part of Europe's solution to this post-GWOT refugee crisis, I believe, is "make America foot the bill." Let me ask you this: would the people of Egypt (where people keep dying due to political conflict), Pakistan, Iraq and Tunisia (ditto for all three) say they are better off now than before the US-led global war on terror commenced? Somehow, I don't think many will agree as evidenced by the number of folks fleeing these playgrounds for Yankee interference.

Make no mistake; things are getting worse in these places.

There is a photo essay on American shopping malls that I found quite amusing on Yahoo! featuring pictures taken by an obviously obsessive chap who took lots of them during that era of high consumerism, the Eighties, entitled "Big Hair, Smoking, and Record Stores." While the IMF now styles itself as not your grandpa's IMF in being a kinder, gentler lender of last resort, I had a distinct 45 RPM retro flashback while reading its latest press release concerning its recent staff mission to Pakistan (where they are not quite fond of Yanquis).

Much as the IMF would like to say otherwise, it seems we have not yet gotten away from the greatest hits of one-size-fits-all quite yet. Liberalization, privatization, deregulation...structural adjustment austerity....is there anything new?

Structural adjustment:

The mission was also pleased with the strong fiscal performance in the first quarter of 2013/14 and the steady implementation of the government’s structural reform agenda...

Belt-tightening:

Fiscal consolidation remains a key component of the government’s economic reform program. The mission was encouraged by the government’s efforts to enhance tax revenues, which slightly exceeded the program target level.

Privatization:

The government is moving forward with the privatization or restructuring of 31 public sector enterprises to improve public sector resource allocation and limit poor performance.

Liberalization:

The authorities are also working towards significant structural reforms in the areas of trade and the business climate to encourage higher investment.

Everything old is new again, and I am afraid that we have not quite gotten into the New Wave, let alone the Alternative era at the IMF since the song remains the same. Is that doom metal? Would you like to, ah, break dance?

I entitled an earlier post about Pakistan, the US and the IMF "When Cash & Hate Collide." To underline that assertion, here's Exhibit A: In a recent Pew Global Attitudes poll, the country which assigned the lowest favorable opinion rating to the United States was--wait for it--Pakistan at a ridiculously low 11% [click for a larger image]. It even outdoes places where Amerihatred is keenest based on current events alike Egypt and the Palestinian territories. As for the cash part, in case you haven't read about it, Pakistan recently inked another IMF bailout for $6.6 billion. That's its eighth--that it not a typo--since 1988. Talk about a state of perma-crisis.

Recently I assigned US-Pakistani ties as a term paper topic to my students. They are well aware of what binds these two reluctant "allies": the danger of a failed nuclear state, the constant Taliban menace, and the strategically advantageous location of this country. The truth is that no matter how badly Pakistan mismanages its economy, the US through the IMF will always come to its "rescue":

In 2008, Pakistan agreed to an $11.3bn loan from the IMF to avert a balance of payments crisis. It received $7.6bn but failed to get the remaining $3.7bn because of its slippages in meeting the performance criteria. That led to the suspension of the programme in May 2010. The programme was extended in December 2010 for nine months, but disbursements were not resumed because of the country’s failure to take fiscal measures as demanded by the IMF. Ironically, Pakistan has availed itself of the new $6.6bn loan to repay the old loan to the IMF of which about half – some $4bn – is outstanding [my emphasis].

From where I come from, borrowing to repay previous borrowing is called a "Ponzi scheme." Whether the IMF does more harm than good is an open question as the IMF readies fairly harsh conditionalities once more. That said, there is hardly reason to believe that Pakistan can work its way out of trouble on its own despite the constant IMF debt overhang. Misplaced subsidies, huge budget deficits, moribund investment, next to non-existent FDI, lack of basic law and order in most places...Pakistan has almost all the negatives humanly possible.

But, going back to the title of the post, can Pakistan be made to hate the US even more after unauthorized incursions via drone strikes, bin Laden strikes, perceptions of IMF neo-imperialism and so on? You can argue that America's 11% favorable rating has nowhere to go but up. I actually expect that it will in the near future as a "dead cat bounce" phenomenon.

As for IMF lending, I expect the same cycle to repeat itself as it has eight times over the last few decades: Pakistan will try to comply for a while with IMF conditionalities but eventually decide the political price of obsequiously bowing to this American hegemonic institution are too high. After all, if there's a better scapegoat for Pakistani perma-crisis than the IMF with its 11% approval rating by proxy, I don't know what is. Who's more masochistic here, Pakistan or the IMF? Beats me, pal.

Just when you thought Qatar's 2022 World Cup could not get any more controversial after continuing debates about the procedure used to select the tiny state and the difficulties associated with hosting the event during the peak of summer in the desert, there's more: It is common knowledge that the bulk of Qatar's workforce is composed of migrants who do the 3-D (dirty, dangerous, difficult) while its few citizens enjoy air-conditioned insulation from the harsh desert environment. However, recent reports have brought to light just exactly what the human cost is on migrant workers.

The Guardian got--pardon the expression--the ball rolling by reporting on the death toll of Nepalese workers due to poor living and working conditions out in the blast furnace of the Arabian desert to put up mega-stadiums in time for the 2022 event:

This summer, Nepalese workers died at a rate of almost one a day in Qatar, many of them young men who had sudden heart attacks. The investigation found evidence to suggest that thousands of Nepalese, who make up the single largest group of labourers in Qatar, face exploitation and abuses that amount to modern-day slavery, as defined by the International Labour Organisation, during a building binge paving the way for 2022.

According to documents obtained from the Nepalese embassy in Doha, at least 44 workers died between 4 June and 8 August. More than half died of heart attacks, heart failure or workplace accidents. The investigation also reveals:

• Evidence of forced labour on a huge World Cup infrastructure project.
• Some Nepalese men have alleged that they have not been paid for months and have had their salaries retained to stop them running away.
• Some workers on other sites say employers routinely confiscate passports and refuse to issue ID cards, in effect reducing them to the status of illegal aliens.
• Some labourers say they have been denied access to free drinking water in the desert heat.
• About 30 Nepalese sought refuge at their embassy in Doha to escape the brutal conditions of their employment.

Der Spiegel then added fuel to the fire by suggesting that Indian workers are also dying of exploitation out in the desert so that the 2022 show may go on:

There are many indications that the 44 dead Nepalese are no exception. Following the revelations in the Guardian, the Indian ambassador reported that 82 Indian workers had died in the first five months of this year, and noted that 1,460 Indians had complained of poor working conditions. The International Trade Union Confederation [ITUC] fears that up to 4,000 workers could die in Qatar before the starting whistle is blown for the first match -- that is, if working conditions don't change.

The 4,000 worker deaths are an extrapolation of the current rate of fatalities being incurred by South Asian workers in Qatar over ten years. Moreover, ITUC argues that Qatar's efforts are in vain since the structure of migrant construction labor is fundamentally abusive:

"The labour inspection system in Qatar has failed, and the government's announcement would simply add some inspectors into a system that doesn't work and will not make a difference," said Sharan Burrow, the ITUC general secretary. "Workers are not able to speak freely as, under the strict visa sponsorship system, employers retain their passports and they are not allowed to change jobs or leave the country without the employer's permission."

Alike nearly all other migrant-receiving states, Qatar has not signed up to the International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families. Hence, Qatar's critics are applying pressure on Qatar being a signatory in another ILO convention concerning forced labor:

Qatar is failing to fully implement an international convention banning the use of forced labour ahead of the 2022 football World Cup, the United Nations' International Labour Organisation (ILO) has warned. Azfar Khan, the ILO's senior labour migration adviser in the Arab states, told the Guardian that despite pledges to do otherwise Qatar did not properly inspect workplace conditions and there was "no coherence" in the state's policies over the use of migrant labour.

"The onus is on the Qataris if they have ratified the convention to better implement it," he said. "Many of the abuses that take place which can lead to forced labour are still happening."

It is turning out to be a fiasco not only for football organizers but also for Qatar. The latter's image is receiving a battering that it's hard to imagine it will recover from in nine years' time. Isn't improving national reputation the goal of the whole enterprise? Qatar seems to be losing sight of it very badly.

Skip the maths, will ya?

I have in the past tied Michael Pettis to the whipping post for uncritically accepting Bernanke's self-serving notion of a "global savings glut" amidst falling levels of savings worldwide and a fantasyland assertion that the US household savings rate would hit double digits. It didn't, and I still don't quite understand why someone who keeps making factually inaccurate statements and predictions remains popular. If you read blogs to keep ahead of the curve of mainstream media or to understand the antecedents of various economic events, well, I would not be so sure about that if you are a regular China Financial Markets reader.

I do not like to keep doing this, but he has done it again (and again and again). In a recent blog, he takes Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler to task for their argument that there is a "yuan bloc" emerging in East Asia. The PIIE authors base this argument on movements of several regional currencies covarying more with the Chinese yuan and less with the US dollar. However, Pettis argues that this argument is artifactual:

Well actually you can argue with the math, or at least you can argue with the interpretation of the math. There are alternative – and much simpler, I think – explanations for the increased “co-movement”, and these do a much better job, I think, of explaining what is happening than reserve currency displacement.

Assume for a moment a global scenario in which the largest exporter of manufactured goods in the world has a significantly undervalued currency. Assume further that many of its competitors also have undervalued currencies, and would like to revalue in order better to manage their domestic monetary policies. Assume finally that the world is in crisis, and exporting nations are having trouble maintaining the necessary growth rate of their exports, so they cannot allow their currencies to rise faster than that of their main export competitors.

In this scenario which currency would the currencies of the smaller exporting countries track, the US dollar, or the undervalued currency of the largest and most competitive exporter of manufactured goods in the world? Almost certainly the latter, right? The smaller exporters would want their currencies to rise, but the rise in their currencies would be limited by the rise in the currency of their largest competitor. This would happen not because they are tracking a new reserve currency but only because they are in export competition with that currency.

That is all well and good if Subramanian and Kessler didn't bother to consider this scenario as Pettis clearly suggests, but they did. On page 11, the PIIE boys write:

i. Is the RMB bloc related to trade integration with or competition against China?
A currency could co-move with the RMB because it is integrated with China in terms of common supply chains. A related but distinctly different reason for co-movement could be if policy targets the RMB because countries do not want to lose competitive advantage vis-à-vis Chinese exporters and domestic manufacturers. In other words, the reason for the co-movement could be competition against rather than integration with China.

How can we distinguish the two? One way of measuring competition is to see if a country exports products similar to China’s. Mattoo, Mishra and Subramanian (2012) develop such an index of competition relative to China. Unfortunately, they compute this index for fewer emerging market countries than contained in our sample.

When we introduce this index of competition (which is country-specific), it has consistently the right sign (the more a country competes with China, the more likely its currency to track the RMB). But is not consistently significant in a statistical sense (in Table 6, the index is statistically significant in column 2 but not in column 1). And when we run a horse race between this competition variable and a pure integration variable, the latter consistently trumps the former. So, the evidence, albeit limited, favors an explanation for co-movement that is more related to trade integration than competition, although a role for the latter cannot be ruled out. One reason for that last caveat relates to the findings reported in Table A6. It seems that outside East Asia, more countries track the RMB when it depreciates than when it appreciates. Moreover, the average magnitude of the CMCs outside East Asia more than doubles in such instances. So, we cannot rule out entirely a competitive pressure motivation for currencies to track the RMB.

PIIE boys did their homework, period. Some points:

1. I don't know why Big Name Authors think they can get away with such sloppy writing;
2. My policy of not having a comments section is vindicated by the echo chamber over at Pettis' blog. 59 comments...and not one who points this out either. I guess the Pettis Fan Club takes his word for gospel truth for better or worse--rather worse here;
3. I'm afraid that this is another example of inept blogging. Pettis writes--and he sure does write with posts extending to thousands and thousands of words--but he clearly doesn't do so from a position of knowledge of the material he himself links to;
4. This demonstrates why some quantitative analysis skills are worth learning for those interested in the subject matter. How do you measure covariance? How can alternative variables be included in models to account for alternative hypotheses? Pettis is a poet with limited numbers chops, so this probably explains his lack of awareness about such things. Do the math.

Note to Mike: If you link to something, at least try to understand what you're criticizing. I am not convinced that the yuan is going to take over as the world's dominant currency soon either, but I think it's at least worth trying to understand the arguments of Subramanian and Kessler before criticizing them for faults they didn't commit.

Of the few opinions I share with George W. Bush, I have long argued that Turkey should be allowed to join the European Union. You know all of the counter-arguments: Turkey is a security risk because it shares borders with Iraq and Syria. Turkey is a dominantly Islamic country, whereas most European nations share a Judeo-Christian tradition. Turkey is a populous nation whose EU membership might see a tsunami of migrants heading for European states. And so on and so forth.

While many of these concerns can be legitimately discounted, I never thought that I would face a similar conundrum in our part of the world, Southeast Asia. Of all the darndest things I could possibly read, how about Pakistan wishing to join ASEAN? On the occasion of predominantly Islamic nations Indonesia and Pakistan signing a (rather limited) FTA, the head of Pakistan's largest chamber of commerce suggests his country is very much interested in this possibility:

Pakistan wants to join the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) and Indonesia should support it in its endeavour, Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) President Mian Abrar Ahmad said in a statement on Monday.

There are many difficulties here. Being a Citizen of the World, I of course have no objections to Muslim nations in ASEAN, for population-wise it is already predominantly composed of citizens of Islamic states. Aside from populous Indonesia, you also have Malaysia and Brunei in ASEAN. That said, consider the following impediments:

1. Geographically speaking, Pakistan is in South Asia, not Southeast Asia. More specifically, it is on the Indian subcontinent. It certainly doesn't share borders with any Southeast Asian nation since it lies west of India;
2. Pakistan is (logically) already involved in regional groupings in its part of the world, notably the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) with lots of its neighbouring 'Stans and a smattering of Middle Eastern states. Both SAARC and ECO already have their own regional integration efforts, so I don't exactly see why joining ASEAN makes sense. While the latter's integration project may be further along in a number of respects, Pakistan's advantage with SAARC and ECO is that it's no Johnny-come-lately to them and thus has more leeway in determining the form of integration as they proceed.
3. Counting on the support of your co-religionists is hardly a sure-fire thing in ASEAN. Recall that Timor Leste has long relied on the Philippines to get the predominantly Roman Catholic nation into ASEAN, but to no avail as of yet.

So, while I certainly don't have any grudges against our Pakistani friends, I would strongly suggest that they make the most out of the regional groupings they already belong to instead of reinventing geography as we know it.

UPDATE: Before I forget, there is precedent for Pakistan being (mis)classified in a Southeast Asian grouping. Witness the "Southeast Asia Treaty Organization," composed of, erm, the United States, France, Great Britain, New Zealand, Australia, the Philippines, Thailand and Pakistan. Originally intended to be a mutual defence arrangement alike NATO, it never really took off and was disbanded by 1977. Here is the US State Department explaining away the presence of extra-regional participants--including Pakistan:

Most of the SEATO member states were countries located elsewhere but with an interest in the region or the organization. Australia and New Zealand were interested in Asian affairs because of their geographic position in the Pacific. Great Britain and France had long maintained colonies in the region and were interested in developments in the greater Indochina region. For Pakistan, the appeal of the pact was the potential for receiving support in its struggles against India, in spite of the fact that neither country was located in the area under the organization's jurisdiction. Finally, U.S. officials believed Southeast Asia to be a crucial frontier in the fight against communist expansion, so it viewed SEATO as essential to its global Cold War policy of containment.

That was back when the US suspected India of having the potential to fall under the Soviet ambit given its then-closer ties to the USSR than the US. Note though how this was a security arrangement, not an economic one. Then again, it demonstrates the US is not exactly a stranger to convoluting geography for its pet projects even today.

The signals are indeed dire. The powers that be, above and beyond Prime Minister Gilani, had already spoken to break the heart of the business community: Pakistan was ready to take the consequences of its embrace of the Haqqani network and that it was the US that would suffer after losing Pakistan as an ally. As for the break with the IMF — after Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Sheikh could convince neither the MQM [coalition partners] within the government nor the PML-N in the opposition to implement the RGST (Reformed General Sales Tax) — it threatens the economy with ‘dollarisation’ and rampant inflation already standing at a level higher than any other South Asian economy. What the businessmen wanted was probably not within the grasp of Mr Gilani. They were of the opinion that if the US was to be defied and if the umbrella of the IMF was to be removed, then they could hold up their end of the bargain provided that law and order was restored...

The pacification of Karachi is a long way off and may be overtaken by other crises triggered by the tiff Pakistan has picked with the US, to provide temporary emotional relief to the country’s intensely anti-American population. What the Gilani government is doing will not serve to bolster the confidence of the business community in Karachi. The army chief has not denied that the Haqqani Network is alive and well in Pakistan but has claimed that a lot of other countries in addition to Pakistan were maintaining contact with a militia of Taliban that controls 13 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. And Mr Gilani has delivered the most telling blow by saying: “America can’t do without us; it should stop sending out wrong messages.”

The end result may just be capital flight as the already-thinned business community in Pakistan flees:

No prizes, therefore, for predicting that the businessmen of Karachi will soon start saving their money and assets from being devalued by fleeing to other markets in the neighbourhood. It would be fair to say that the next few months or more will be uncertain to say the least, and that the consequences of a permanent break with the Americans could be severe on Pakistan’s economy.